Sat, 16 Oct 2021

CHICAGO, Sept. 18 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures went firm in the past week in anticipation of strong market demand.

Chicago-based research company AgResource expects a bullish outlook for agricultural futures as demand for U.S. agricultural products remains strong and exports are seasonally ramping up.

December corn ended 10 cents higher, which helped confirm that seasonal lows were scored following the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) September reports.

Corn price focus over the next two to three weeks will be on Plains and Midwest yield combine data and U.S. September stocks. Early Midwest yield data suggests that heat pushed maturity and acute disease pressures weighed on kernel size and test weight. Record yields across the Eastern Midwest have been tough to find. Expected low drought yields are being reported across the Northern Plains and the Northwest Midwest. AgResource has dropped U.S. corn yield estimate to 173 bushels per acre (BPA), and a decline below 170 BPA should not be ruled out.

Old crop global corn consumption and trade were record large. Modest demand growth is anticipated in 2021-2022. U.S. corn export improvement is imminent as Brazilian exports will fall some 3 million to 4 million metric tons short of already low World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) expectations. U.S. and Ukraine harvest data will be key, but a bullish outlook for corn is unfolding as the back-and-forth CBOT summer weather market has ended. Corn should be starting a sustained rally.

U.S. wheat futures ended higher. The lack of protein wheat in Western Europe and Russia's rapidly rising export tax bodes favorably for U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat export demand. Additionally, it is expected that HRW stocks continue to erode based on the collapse in carry-in supplies.

Important in the medium term is that world trade through Sept. 14 is calculated at 37.8 million metric tons, record large and up 2 million metric tons from last year.

High prices are not slowing global consumption. This indicates that bullish seasonal trend stays intact into early 2022.

AgResource suggests end users continue to use breaks to add to wheat and flour supply coverage. There is no room for additional North Hemisphere supply loss. Even amid normal weather sub-6.00-dollar wheat is unlikely until 2023-2024. Lower Russian winter wheat seeding and their ongoing export tax limits any market bearishness to technical price declines.

Soybean futures held a narrow range and closed firm. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a slightly larger than expected August crush rate, while the USDA announced a mix of daily export sales and cancellations.

However, U.S. soybean sales announcements were greater than the cancellations, and the end of week total amounted to net sales announcements of 5 million bushels. China was thought to have booked at least 10 cargos of Brazilian soybeans, as a result of delays at the U.S. Gulf.

Harvest has begun across North and South Dakota with expectedly disappointing yields. The trade is anxiously awaiting the Eastern Midwest harvest data to see if yield reports will confirm the 50.8 BPA estimate. AgResource sees soybeans in a broad range of 12.5 dollars to 14.5 dollars with South American weather scares tied to La Nina pushing values above 15 dollars in the first quarter of 2022. It is all about Eastern Midwest yield reports nearby.

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