Mon, 10 Aug 2020

Covid-19: Another hard lockdown 'possible' as SA prepares for spike in deaths - Mkhize

The organisation said that two metros in Gauteng have shown increased numbers of deaths in the week leading up to 23 June 2020.

Supplied South African Medical Research Council

Deaths from natural causes in the City of Cape Town, Buffalo and Nelson Mandela Bay metros also continued increasing in the week up to 23 June 2020.

"Since 6 May, an excess of 2 167 deaths from natural causes has been experienced in Cape Town, 202 in Buffalo and 455 in Nelson Mandela Bay. A sharp increase in natural deaths was observed in Buffalo City and the weekly number of natural deaths is significantly higher than [the] predicted number.

"Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal have all shown increases in natural deaths and are experiencing an excess number of natural deaths," the SAMRC said.

Supplied South African Medical Research Council

The SAMRC added that because the number of deaths has a seasonal trend, historical data from 2018 and 2019 have been used to predict the number of deaths that could be expected during 2020.

".... Generally, the number of excess deaths per week is calculated as the number of all-cause deaths in that week less the number that might be assumed to have occurred had there not been the epidemic.

"However, we have estimated the numbers of excess deaths once a clear upward trend is evident as the number of actual deaths less a baseline number determined as a proportion of the lower projection bound," SAMRC said.

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