Sudan and the South

South Sudan has a long history of being at odds with the rest of the country and this conflict of interests has been attributed in Western media to the fact that northern Sudan is primarily Muslim and Arab dominated, whereas South Sudan is made up of indigenous African cultures and ethnicities, this view has been reinforced by the ongoing violence in Darfur, a region of Sudan where a genocide is occurring and has led to President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan being charged with war crimes by the International Court at The Hague, a charge that the government in Khartoum categorically denies.

To attribute the desire of the south for independence to religion or ethnicity, however, is too simple, one of the primary reasons for the south’s desire for independence and Sudan’s opposition is that this is where vast oil reserves are located. The conflict is also influenced by resources then, as is so often the case on our continent and the countdown to the referendum in 2011 is putting both the country and major world powers on edge.

The civil war that led to the current political arrangement was a long and devastating one. For over two decades the Sudan People’s Liberation Army fought central government control and over two million people were killed, while 5 million people were displaced by the fighting. The infrastructure of both countries suffered and of the 2.5 million killed, 1.9 million of them were civilians. Great opposition to central government control therefore remains in South Sudan, while the two government are deeply attached to the oil reserves located in South Sudan.

For Khartoum, 85% of the country’s oil comes from the South, while the southern government relies on their oil revenues to make up 90% of their annual operational budget. Under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed between the two sides in 2005, at the culmination of the civil war, the oil revenues are to be shared equally, but South Sudan’s independence would likely change this relationship as they would begin exporting oil to Sudan, making the north reliant on the South, a situation the central government will find hard to countenance.

Sudan is becoming of increasing interest to both the United States and China according to international and Sudan news reports. The two oil hungry countries rely on Sudan as it is part of their energy security and China has made it clear that it wants no disruption to the oil production in South Sudan, while the US, which helped Kenya spearhead the CPA, will lose face if another civil war breaks out.

The prospect of another civil war is concerning to many in the north and south of the country, especially those that live near the demarcated border for memories of the previous war are fresh in the mind of the Sudanese people. Already the drums of war have begun to sound in Sudan news reports revealing that the South is acquiring helicopters from Russia and is developing a small air force. Under the terms of the CPA South Sudan is entitled to buy military hardware, but can only do so with Sudan’s approval, Sudan has indicated it is aware of the helicopter purchases, but claims their use is not civilian, which the central government says was part of the agreement.

South Sudan has assured the north that the Mi-17 helicopters will be deployed in civilian operations, but military strategists in the west have indicated that South Sudan needs to build up its own military force if its bid for independence is to be taken seriously. The region has a sizeable ground force, but lacks the air-to-surface attack capacity of the central government, which was widely attributed to the heavy losses in the last war.

Tragically, a third civil war in the country would become one of attrition, just as the previous two were. While the USA and China have declared their commitment to ensuring peace prevails in the country as the referendum approaches, it is up to the two regions themselves, the two government of the north and south to come to an agreement that will spare more lives being lost and bring to an end enmity that has its roots in the distance past in a time when Arab traders first made landfall in Africa.